تأثیر تحریم‌ها بر صادرات غیرنفتی ایران

نوع مقاله: پژوهش کاربردی

نویسندگان

1 تهران پژوهشگاه و دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی ، دکتری سیاست دفاعی

2 گروه اقتصاد/دانشگاه آیت ا... العظمی بروجردی (ره)- بروجرد

3 گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه ایت ا... العظمی بروجردی (ره)

چکیده

هدف از این مقاله بررسی تاثیر تحریم‌ها بر صادرات غیرنفتی ایران در بازه زمانی 1358-1392 است. روش این پژوهش در گردآوری داده ها اسنادی و در تجزیه و تحلیل، اقتصاد سنجی است واز روش سری زمانی ساختاری عوامل موثر بر صادرات غیرنفتی مدلسازی شده است.نتایج حاصل از برآورد مدل نشان داده است تحریم‌ها تاثیری منفی و معنی‌دار بر صادرات غیرنفتی کشور داشته‌است. همچنینتولید ناخالص داخلی واقعی، درجه باز بودن و نرخ واقعی ارز تاثیر مثبت و معنی‌داری بر صادرات غیرنفتی کشور داشته‌اند و رابطه مبادله یا همان نسبت شاخص قیمت کالای صادراتی به وارداتی تاثیری منفی و معنی‌دار بر صادرات غیرنفتی داشته است.همچنین نتایج نشان داده است که سطح و شیب روند ضمنی تاثیری معنی‌دار بر صادرات غیرنفتی داشته است که نشان دهنده تاثیر معنی‌دار عوامل غیرقابل مشاهده بر روند صادرات غیرنفتی است.برگرفته از نتایج پژوهش،ضرورت اتخاد سیاستهای اقتصادی مبتنی برگسترش توسعه صادرات غیرنفتی و مقابله با شرایط تحریمی پیشنهاد می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Impact of sanctions on non-oil exports of Iran: Structural time series approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • ali akbar hassanvand 1
  • Darioush Hassanvand 2
  • Yones Nademi 3
1 tehran University and Research Institute of National Defense and Strategic
2 University of Ayatollah ozma Boroujerdi
3 Economic university of Ayatollah Borujerdi
چکیده [English]

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of sanctions on Iran's non-oil exports during the period 1979-2013. The method of this research is to document the data and to analyze the econometric model with structural time series method which has modeled factors influencing non-oil exports. The results of the model estimation have shown that sanctions have a significant negative effect on non-oil exports of the country. Also, real GDP, openness rate and real exchange rate have a significant positive effect on non-oil exports of the country. The terms of trade or the ratio of the price index of exported goods to imported goods, has a significant negative effect on non-oil exports. The results also show that the level and gradient of the underlying trend have a significant effect on non-oil exports, which shows the significant effect of the non-visible factors on non-oil exports. Based on the results of the research, the necessity of adopting economic policies based on the development of non-oil exports and dealing with sanctions conditions is proposed.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Sanction
  • Non-Exports
  • Resistive economy
  • Structural time series approach
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