اثرات سیاست های ارزی و تجاری بر صادرات محصولات باغی در ایران

نوع مقاله: پژوهش کاربردی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه زابل

2 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل- ایران

چکیده

هدف این مطالعه بررسی تأثیر سیاست های ارزی و تجاری بر صادرات گروه محصولات باغی در ایران می باشد. در زمینه سیاست های ارزی شاخص بی ثباتی نرخ ارز و متغیر موهومی سیاست یکسان سازی نرخ ارز و در ارتباط با سیاست های تجاری، شاخص ضریب انحراف تجاری و شاخص باز بودن اقتصاد درنظر گرفته شدند. بدین منظور به تخمین رابطه بلندمدت و کوتاه مدت بین متغیرهای مدل از فرم لگاریتمی تابع عرضه صادرات بر اساس الگوی ARDL و مدل تصحیح خطا پرداخته شد. داده های تحقیق از سایت پایگاه آمار تجارت بین الملل، آمارنامه های وزارت جهاد کشاورزی و سایت بانک مرکزی برای سال های ۱۳۷۶ تا ۱۳۹۴جمع آوری شده است. نتایج نشان داد در بلندمدت متغیرهای ضریب انحراف تجاری، بی ثباتی نرخ ارز، متغیر باز بودن اقتصاد، ارزش صادرات میوه های هسته دار در سال های قبل، متغیر قیمت داخلی محصولات و متغیر موهومی سیاست یکسان سازی نرخ ارز دارای اثر مثبت بر صادرات میوه های هسته دار در ایران می باشند. ضریب تصحیح خطا نیز۴۲/۰- تخمین زده شده که کاملاً معنی دار است و دلالت بر یک سرعت بسیار بالای تعدیل به سمت تعادل بلندمدت را دارد و نشان می دهد که در صورت وارد شدن شوک و انحراف از تعادل، در هر دوره ۵۸/۰ درصد از عدم تعادل کوتاه مدت برای رسیدن به تعادل بلندمدت تعدیل می شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The effect trade and exchange rate policies on the export of stone fruit in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • hamid mohammadi 1
  • monir ahmad rasoolizadeh 2
1 Assistant Professor, Economics Agricultural department,faculty of agriculture, University of Zabol, iran
2 PHD student, Economics Agricultural department,faculty of agriculture, University of Zabol, iran
چکیده [English]

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of foreign exchange rate and trade policies on crop exports in Iran. Regarding foreign exchange policies, exchange rate volatility index and the dummy variable of currency uniformity policy were considered, while economy openness index as well as trade bias coefficient index were studied for business policies. Logarithmic model of export supply function based on ARDL and error correction model were used to estimate long term and short term relations between variables. The research data were collected from the websites of the International Trade Statistics Database and the Central Bank of Iran from 1997 to 2014. The results showed that commercial deviation coefficient, real exchange rate, economy openness, stone fruits export value in previous years, domestic product price and the dummy variable of currency uniformity policy variables all have a positive effect, in the long term, on Iranian stone fruits export. The coefficient for error correction model equals -0.42, which is quite significant indicating a very high modulation pace to a long term equilibrium. In addition, the results revealed that, in case of shock and distortion in balance in each period, 0.58% of short term imbalances is adjusted to achieve long term equilibrium.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Export
  • Crops
  • Real exchange rate
  • Trade Bias
  • Economic openness index
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