بررسی روند شاخص‌های پایداری انرژی طی نیمه نخست سند چشم‌انداز 20 ساله ایران

نوع مقاله: پژوهش کاربردی

نویسندگان

1 گروه اقتصاد-دانشگاه خلیج فارس-بوشهر-ایران

2 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد-دانشگاه خلیج فارس

چکیده

هدف اصلی این مطالعه بررسی روند شاخص‌های پایداری انرژی طی دو دوره پنج ساله نخست سند چشم اندازه 20 ساله ایران (سال‌های 1388_1384 و 1393_1389) می‌باشد. جهت بررسی پایداری سیستم انرژی از شاخص‌ ترکیبی توسعه پایدار انرژی (SEDI) استفاده شده است. ابعاد لحاظ شده در این پژوهش شامل ابعاد فنی، اقتصادی، اجتماعی، زیست‌محیطی و نهادی می‌باشد. پس از محاسبه پایداری هر کدام از ابعاد، براساس روش محاسبه شاخص HDI پایداری بدست آمده نرمالسازی گردید، سپس شاخص SEDI که میانگین پنج بعد می‌باشد برای هر سال محاسبه شد. نتایج بدست آمده نشان می‌دهد ابعاد فنی، اقتصادی و اجتماعی در دوره 5 ساله نخست دارای نرخ پایداری مثبت بوده‌اند اما در دوره دوم بر خلاف بعد فنی و اقتصادی که نرخ پایداری آن‌ها افزایش اندکی داشته است بعد اجتماعی کاهش نرخ پایداری را تجربه کرده است. بعد زیست‌محیطی و نهادی و همچنین شاخص SEDI در دوره نخست نرخ پایداری منفی داشته‌اند. نرخ پایداری شاخص SEDI در دوره 5 ساله دوم مثبت اما ناچیز شده است و در مسیر پایداری گام برداشته است. نرخ پایداری بعد زیست‌محیطی در دوره دوم با بهبود اندکی همچنان منفی باقی مانده است و بر خلاف آن بعد نهادی ناپایدارتر شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Studying the Trend of Sustainability Indices of Energy in the First Half of Iran’s 20-year Vision Document

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hojat Parsa 1
  • seyedeh zahra sajadi 2
1 Economics Department-Persian Gulf University-Busher-Iran
2 Ms in Economics-Persian Gulf University
چکیده [English]

The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the trend of sustainability indices of energy during two first-5-year periods in the Iran’s outlook 1404 (years of 2005-2009 and 2010-2014). In order to evaluate the sustainability of energy system, combined sustainable energy index (SEDI) is applied. Dimensions included in this study are: technical, economic, social, environmental, institutional dimensions. After calculating the sustainability of each of dimensions, each dimension normalized based on the calculation method of HDI index, afterwards SEDI index computed; which is the average of the 5 dimensions. The results show that technical, economic and social dimensions in the first 5-year period have positive sustainability rate, but in the second period unlike technical and economic dimensions that their sustainability rates have little increased, social dimension has experienced reduction in the rate. Environmental and institutional dimensions and also SEDI index have negative sustainability rate in the first period. SEDI sustainability rate in the second 5-year period has become positive (but insignificant) and has gone to a sustainability path. Sustainability rate of environmental dimension in the second period with a slight improvement has still remained negative and, contrary to this dimension, institutional dimension has become more unstable.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Vision Document
  • sustainable development
  • Energy
  • SEDI Index
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