بررسی ارتباط هم‌زمان تاب‌آوری و رشد اقتصادی با تأکید بر سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ اقتصاد، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، پژوهشکدۀ مطالعات اسلامی در علوم انسانی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

چکیده

 با توجه به اهمیت رشد اقتصادی پایدار برای هر کشوری، اقتصاددانان می‌کوشند میزان تأثیرگذاری متغیرهای مختلف را بر رشد اقتصادی مورد بررسی قرار دهند و نظام تصمیم‌گیری و تصمیم‌سازی خود را بر آن متمرکز کنند. سیاست‌گذاران اقتصادی در ایران نیز درجهت دستیابی به اهداف اقتصادی چشم‌انداز 1404، رشد 8درصدی تولید ناخالص داخلی را در برنامه‌های پنج‌سالۀ کشور هدف‌گذاری کرده‌اند که به‌دلایل مختلفی، ازجمله فضای نامناسب کسب‌وکار و ساختار نامناسب اقتصادی و نیز فشارهای خارجی از طرف کشورهای سلطه‌گر، تا کنون به‌صورت پایدار محقق نشده است و فاصلۀ زیادی با آن وجود دارد. یکی از مؤلفه‌های شتاب‌دهنده و ملزومات رشد اقتصادی در ادبیات علم اقتصاد، تکیه بر شناخت و احیای ظرفیت‌ها و افزایش انواع سرمایه‌گذاری داخلی و خارجی در اقتصاد است. نقش سرمایه‏گذاری خارجی در بندهای 10 و 12 سیاست‌های کلی اقتصاد مقاومتی و تأثیر آن بر مقاومت اقتصادی تصریح شده است که می‌تواند بستر رشد اقتصادی پایدار را فراهم کند. در این مقاله، با استفاده از روش سیستم معادلات هم‌زمان، به بررسی تأثیرپذیری رشد اقتصادی از تغییرات سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی و شاخص تاب‌آوری در اقتصاد ایران طی سال‏های 1375 تا 1399 پرداخته شده است. نتایج این پژوهش بیانگر رابطۀ مثبت و معنادار رشد اقتصادی با تاب‌آوری، درجۀ باز بودن اقتصاد و نرخ رشد سرمایۀ فیزیکی است. همچنین در معادلۀ دوم بین رشد اقتصادی و تاب‏آوری ارتباط مثبت و معنادار وجود دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Simultaneous Relationship between Resilience and Economic Growth Emphasizing Foreign Investment

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hossein Amiri 1
  • Vahid Arshadi 2
1 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Institute of Islamic Studies in Humanities, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
چکیده [English]

Considering the significant of sustainable economic growth in all countries, economists try to measure the impact of different variables on economy and attune their decision making agenda accordingly. Economic policy makers in Iran have targeted 8 percent of GDP for the five-year plan in order to achieve the economic aims of the 2025 perspective. This has not been achieved due to several reasons such as inappropriate atmosphere of the business, unsuitable structure of economy, and foreign pressures from imperial countries. One of the fertilizers for economic growth is to rely and trigger the resources, and attract different kinds of foreign and domestic investments. The role of foreign investment has been noted on clauses 10 and 12 of the macro-policies of resistance economy which can encourage the development of sustainable economy. This study, employing simultaneous equation model, tried to investigate the impact of changes in foreign investment and resilience index on economic growth of Iran from 1997 to 2021. The findings showed a significant relationship between economic growth and resilience on the one hand, and the degree of open economy and the rate of physical capital development. Also, there was a significant relationship between economic growth and resilience.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Foreign direct investment
  • economic growth
  • simultaneous equation model

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