دوران‌های مالی ‌در بازار دارایی‌های کلان اقتصادی: راهبردی برای سیاستگذاریهای کلان

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، واحد شیراز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیراز، ایران

2 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد، مدرس موسسه آموزش عالی حافظ شیراز، شیراز، ایران

3 کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، مشاور دفتر آینده‌پژوهی مدلسازی و مدیریت اطلاعات اقتصادی وزارت اقتصاد و دارایی، شیراز، ایران

چکیده

درپی بحران‌های مالی در بازارهای متنوع دارایی، ضرورت توجه به اثرات متقابل و هم‌زمان این دوران‌ها در پیشگیری از وقوع بحران‌های عمیق با اعمال سیاست‌های تعدیلی تطبیقی و انعطاف‌پذیر و متحد توسط مقامات پولی و سرمایه‌ای کشور گریزناپذیر است. از این رو مطالعۀ حاضر با استفاده از ادبیات پرتفوی تصادفی در چارچوب یک الگوی ساختاری پویا به بررسی تأثیر ادوار بازدهی دو بازار دارایی ارز و طلا بر دوران‌های بازار سهام پرداخته است. نتایج به طور مشخص از تأثیر هم‌زمان و ارتباط متقابل بین این بازارها حکایت دارد؛ به طوری که نوسانات بازار ارز نسبت به بازار طلا تأثیرات بلندمدت بزرگتری بر ایجاد ادوار مالی در بازار سهام ایران دارد. بنابراین با توجه به ارتباط این بازارها با یکدیگر، به سیاست‌گذاران راهبردی کشور توصیه می‌شود در هنگام وقوع بحرانی‌های مالی در بازارهای ارز و طلاء با اعمال سیاست‌های حمایتی از ایجاد بحران شدید و سقوط مالی در بازار سهام جلوگیری کنند. همچنین در شرایطی که بازارهای ارز و طلا دارای تقاضای ناشی از عدم اطمینان آتی اقتصادی است، توصیه می‌شود از بازار سرمایه حمایت کافی صورت پذیرد تا سرمایه‌ها از این بازار برای مقاصد سوداگرانه به سایر بازارها روانه نگردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The financial Cycles in Macroeconomic Asset Markets: A Strategy for Macro Policies

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hashem Zare 1
  • Zeinab Rezaei Sakha 2
  • Mohammad Zare 3
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Economic, Faculty of Economic and Management, Islamic Azad University Shiraz Branch,, Shiraz, Iran
2 MA in Economics, Economics and Management, Hafez Higher Education Instiute, Shiraz, Iran
3 MA in Economics, َ Advisor of the Office of Future Studies, Modeling, and Management of Economic Informaton of the Ministry of Economy, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

In the wake of the financial crisis in various asset markets, Attention necessity to mutual and simultaneous effects of these cycles in Prevention of deep crisis by imposing adaptive adjustment, flexible and integrated policies by the monetary and capital authorities in the country is inevitable. Thus, this study using a stochastic portfolio literature in a dynamic structural model framework , is investigated the impacts of Return cycles in exchange and gold markets , which have a higher liquidity than other assets, on stock market cycles .The Results significantly implicate the transmission of Exchange and gold markets shocks to the stock market. In addition, the stock market cycles receive more impacts from the exchange market than gold market. So according to the connection of these markets together, the capital market policy makers are recommended to prevent financial collapse and extreme crisis in the stock market during financial crisis in currency and gold markets by imposing supportive policies. It is also advisable to provide adequate support to the capital market in the event that the currency and gold markets are in demand due to future economic uncertainty so that capital will not be sent to other markets for speculative purposes.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Stochastic portfolio
  • Stock Market
  • Exchange
  • Gold
  • Financial Cycles

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