تاثیر نابرابری درآمد، رشد اقتصادی و نرخ ارز حقیقی بر مخارج عمومی کشور

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 هیئت علمی/ دانشگاه بوعلی سینا

2 کارشناسی ارشد/ دانشگاه بوعلی سینا

چکیده

عدم توازن در مخارج و منابع درآمدی دولت، بواسطه کسری ایجاد شده در تراز حساب جاری علاوه بر تاثیر بر پارامترهای کلان اقتصادی تبعاتی نظیر؛ نامتعادل شدن بودجه و پس‌انداز خصوصی و نوسان در رشد اقتصادی را نیز به همراه دارد. این شرایط عدم تعادل در منابع درآمدی و مخارج دولت می تواند بیانگر نیاز به واردات بیشتر و معلول ضعف مبانی تولید، عرضه اقتصاد و قدرت رقابت‌پذیری هر کشور در سطوح بین‌الملل باشد. در چنین وضعیتی الگوی نادرست واردات کالاهای واسطه‌ای و سرمایه‌ای بجای واردات کالاهای مصرفی؛ استقراض بین‌المللی، کاهش اشتغال ملی به نفع اشتغال خارجی، کاهش رشد اقتصادی، وابستگی و تحریم پذیری و از دست رفتن منابع و ثروت ملی را موجب می‌شود. هدف این مطالعه بررسی تاثیر نابرابری درآمد، رشد اقتصادی و نرخ ارز حقیقی بر مخارج عمومی بدون در نظر گرفتن درآمدهای نفتی با استفاده از الگوی پویایی خود بازگشتی با وقفه توضیحی (ARDL) در بازه زمانی (1395-1357) می‌باشد. متغیرهای مورد استفاده‌ شامل؛ کسری حساب‌جاری بدون نفت، ضریب جینی به‌عنوان شاخص برآورد کننده نابرابری درآمد، رشد اقتصادی بدون نفت و نرخ ارز حقیقی می‌باشد. نتایج حاصل از یافته‌های پژوهش در طی دوره مورد بررسی نشان می‌دهد که بهبود نابرابری درآمد و رشد اقتصادی در بلندمدت کسری حساب‌جاری و فشار بر مخارج دولت را کاهش می‌دهد و افزایش نرخ ارز حقیقی موجب افزایش بر مخارج دولت شده و کسری حساب‌جاری را تشدید می کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Income Inequality, Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rate on General Expenditure

نویسندگان [English]

  • Akbar Khodabakhshi 1
  • Borzou Zohrehvand 2
1 Faculty of Economics/ Bu Ali Sina University
2 Master of Economics/ Bu Ali Sina University
چکیده [English]

The imbalance in government spending and revenue sources, due to the deficit created in the current account balance, In addition to the impact on the macroeconomic parameters has also consequences such as, budget imbalances and private savings, and fluctuations in economic growth. These imbalances in income sources and government spending may indicate the need to more import and weaken the foundations of production, supply of the economy, and the competitiveness for each country in internationally levels. In such a situation, the incorrect pattern of imports of intermediate and capital goods instead of consumer goods causes international borrowing, reduced national employment in favor of foreign employment, reduced economic growth, dependency and sanctions, and loss of national resources and wealth. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of income inequality on non-oil deficit of Iran using the ARDL model in time interval (1978-2016). The variables used include the deficit of current account without oil, the Gini coefficient as an indicator of the estimated income inequality, economic growth without oil, and the real exchange rate.The results of research findings during the study period show that improving inequality of income and economic growth in the long run reduces government expenses and current account deficit and the increase in the real exchange rate will increase government expenses and current account deficit.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • General Expenditure
  • Inequality of income
  • Economic Growth
  • Model (ARDL)
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