برنامه‌ریزی منابع انسانی در صنعت نفت با رویکرد آینده‌نگاری در چارچوب سیاست‌های کلی انرژی

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، رشته مدیریت دولتی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه مدیریت دولتی، پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی فناوری، موسسه مطالعات بین المللی انرژی، تهران، ایران

3 استادیار، گروه مدیریت دولتی، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران مرکزی، تهران، ایران

10.30507/jmsp.2022.324789.2369

چکیده

هدف از این پژوهش ارائۀ مدل برنامه‌ریزی منابع انسانی با رویکرد آینده‌نگاری در چارچوب سیاست‌های کلی انرژی است. روش تحلیل داده‌ها در بخش کیفی، تحلیل داده‌‌بنیاد بود و در بخش کمّی نیز از مدل‌‌سازی معادلات ساختاری استفاده شد. جامعۀ آماری پژوهش در بخش کیفی شامل پانزده نفر از خبرگان  و مدیران منابع انسانی شرکت ملی نفت ایران است. در بخش کیفی تحقیق، داده‌ها با روش مصاحبۀ نیمه‌ساختاریافته و در بخش کمّی از طریق پرسش‌نامۀ محقق‌ساخته جمع‌آوری شد. روایی پرسش‌نامه و روایی سازه و پایایی با استفاده از آلفای کرونباخ محاسبه و تأیید شد. نتایج پژوهش در قالب شش مؤلفۀ شرایط علّی، پدیده‌محوری، راهبردها، شرایط زمینه‌ای و مداخله‌گر و پیامدها دسته‌بندی شد. شدت اثر شرایط علّی بر مقولۀ پدیده‌محوری با 0.753 محاسبه شد که نشان‌دهندۀ تأیید این رابطه است. عوامل مداخله‌گر با شدت 0.497 و عوامل زمینه‌ای با شدت 0.426 بر راهبردها تأثیر مثبت و معنادار دارد و راهبردها با شدت 0.842 بر پیامدها تأثیر مثبت و معنادار دارد؛ ولی تأثیر پدیده‌محوری با شدت 0.056- بر راهبردها تأیید نشد. برنامه‌ریزی منابع انسانی در صنعت نفت مستلزم توجه به فرهنگ آینده‌پژوهی است و جهت ترسیم و ایجاد آیندۀ مطلوب می‌توان از آینده‌پژوهی به‌عنوان یک حامی بهره برد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Human Resource Planning in the Oil Industry with the Foresight Approach in the Framework of General Energy Policies

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ahmad Asadi 1
  • Mojtaba Rajabbaigy 2
  • Kaveh Teymournejad 3
1 PhD student, Public Administration, Faculty of Management and Economics, Islamic Azad University, Faculty of Science and Research, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Public Administration, Institute of Strategic Technology Studies, Institute of International Energy Studies, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Public Administration, Faculty of Management, Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The aim of this research is to suggest a planning model for human resources considering the foresight approach in the general energy policies. Grounded theory was employed in the qualitative data analysis and, the equation structure modelling was used in the quantitative analysis. The population in the qualitative phase was 15 experts and managers of human resources in the national oil industry of Iran. So far as the qualitative phase is concerned, the data was extracted through the semi-structured interview, and through questionnaire in the quantitative phase. The reliability and validity of the questionnaire was checked out via Cronbach alpha. The findings suggested six elements: causative, phenomenological, strategic, contextual, interventional, and consequential. The impact of causative conditions on the phenomenological one was 0.753 which showed a significant relationship. The interventional element was calculated to have 0.497, and contextual 0.426 significant effect on the strategic element. However, the strategic element had 0.842 level of positive significant impact on the consequential element, while the -0.056 impact of the phenomenological element on the strategic element meant to be non-significant. The human resource planning in oil industry requires the culture of foresight approach. Therefore, one can employ future studies as a significant source for a sound future.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Human resource planning
  • foresight
  • general energy policies

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