برنامه‌ریزی منابع انسانی در صنعت نفت با رویکرد آینده‌نگاری در چارچوب سیاست‌های کلی انرژی

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، رشته مدیریت دولتی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه مدیریت دولتی، پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی فناوری، موسسه مطالعات بین المللی انرژی، تهران، ایران

3 استادیار، گروه مدیریت دولتی، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران مرکزی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

هدف از این پژوهش ارائۀ مدل برنامه‌ریزی منابع انسانی با رویکرد آینده‌نگاری در چارچوب سیاست‌های کلی انرژی است. روش تحلیل داده‌ها در بخش کیفی، تحلیل داده‌‌بنیاد بود و در بخش کمّی نیز از مدل‌‌سازی معادلات ساختاری استفاده شد. جامعۀ آماری پژوهش در بخش کیفی شامل پانزده نفر از خبرگان  و مدیران منابع انسانی شرکت ملی نفت ایران است. در بخش کیفی تحقیق، داده‌ها با روش مصاحبۀ نیمه‌ساختاریافته و در بخش کمّی از طریق پرسش‌نامۀ محقق‌ساخته جمع‌آوری شد. روایی پرسش‌نامه و روایی سازه و پایایی با استفاده از آلفای کرونباخ محاسبه و تأیید شد. نتایج پژوهش در قالب شش مؤلفۀ شرایط علّی، پدیده‌محوری، راهبردها، شرایط زمینه‌ای و مداخله‌گر و پیامدها دسته‌بندی شد. شدت اثر شرایط علّی بر مقولۀ پدیده‌محوری با 0.753 محاسبه شد که نشان‌دهندۀ تأیید این رابطه است. عوامل مداخله‌گر با شدت 0.497 و عوامل زمینه‌ای با شدت 0.426 بر راهبردها تأثیر مثبت و معنادار دارد و راهبردها با شدت 0.842 بر پیامدها تأثیر مثبت و معنادار دارد؛ ولی تأثیر پدیده‌محوری با شدت 0.056- بر راهبردها تأیید نشد. برنامه‌ریزی منابع انسانی در صنعت نفت مستلزم توجه به فرهنگ آینده‌پژوهی است و جهت ترسیم و ایجاد آیندۀ مطلوب می‌توان از آینده‌پژوهی به‌عنوان یک حامی بهره برد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Human Resource Planning in the Oil Industry with the Foresight Approach in the Framework of General Energy Policies

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ahmad Asadi 1
  • Mojtaba Rajabbaigy 2
  • Kaveh Teymournejad 3
1 PhD student, Public Administration, Faculty of Management and Economics, Islamic Azad University, Faculty of Science and Research, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Public Administration, Institute of Strategic Technology Studies, Institute of International Energy Studies, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Public Administration, Faculty of Management, Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The aim of this research is to suggest a planning model for human resources considering the foresight approach in the general energy policies. Grounded theory was employed in the qualitative data analysis and, the equation structure modelling was used in the quantitative analysis. The population in the qualitative phase was 15 experts and managers of human resources in the national oil industry of Iran. So far as the qualitative phase is concerned, the data was extracted through the semi-structured interview, and through questionnaire in the quantitative phase. The reliability and validity of the questionnaire was checked out via Cronbach alpha. The findings suggested six elements: causative, phenomenological, strategic, contextual, interventional, and consequential. The impact of causative conditions on the phenomenological one was 0.753 which showed a significant relationship. The interventional element was calculated to have 0.497, and contextual 0.426 significant effect on the strategic element. However, the strategic element had 0.842 level of positive significant impact on the consequential element, while the -0.056 impact of the phenomenological element on the strategic element meant to be non-significant. The human resource planning in oil industry requires the culture of foresight approach. Therefore, one can employ future studies as a significant source for a sound future.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Human resource planning
  • foresight
  • general energy policies
Abbaspour, A., Dehghanan, H., Olfat, L., & Seyed Khamoushi, S. (2020). A model for a thorough planning of human resources in research-based organizations in oil industry. Strategic Studies in Oil and Energy Industry, 11(44), 95-122. (Persain)
Agarwal, S., & Al Qouyatahi, Kh. (2017). HRM challenges in the age of globalisation. International Research Journal of Business Studies, 10(2), 89-98. https://doi.org/10.21632/irjbs.10.2.89-98
Aghadavoud, R., Farhadi, F., Seydayi Golsefidi, A., Akbari Monjarmouyi, E., Enayatollah Bamiri, Y. (2021). Analyzing the factors of success in strategic management of human resources through thematic analysis, DIMTEL, and Qualiflex: the case of oil products in Isfahan. Strategic Studies in Oil and Energy Industry, 13(49), 155-174. (Persain)
Alam, S., & Dhamija, P. (2022). Human resource development 4.0 (HRD 4.0) in the apparel industry of Bangladesh: A theoretical framework and future research directions. International Journal of Manpower, 43)2(, 263-285.
Alizadeh, A., Bagherzadeh, M., Tabari, M., & Arman, M. (2020). A framework for identifying and categorizing the strategic plans of human resources of oil industry through a qualitative approach. Strategic Studies in Oil and Energy Industry, 12(46), 241-257. (Persain)
Amiri, H., & Hedayatifar, S. (2019). Orienting the processes of human resources in defense organizations with a future study approach. Studies in Human Resources Management of Imam Hossein University, 11(2), 60. (Persain)
Anjum, A., & Ming, X. (2019). Analysis of strategic human resource management practices in small and medium enterprises of south Asia. International Journal of Service Science, Management, Engineering, and Technology (IJSSMET)10(1), 44-61. https://doi.org/10.4018/IJSSMET.2019010104
Arjmand Kermani, Sh., Beheshtifar, M., Pourkiani, M., & Sheikhi A. (2020). A model for the strategic effective potentials of human resources: the case of Saderat banks. Futurology of Management, 31(123), 66-77. (Persain)
Armstrong, M. (2014). Strategic management of human resources: A practical manual (translated into Farsi by Mohammad Erabi & Omid Mahdieh). Tehran: Cultural Studies Press. (Persain)
Asadi, A., Rajab Beigi, M., & Tehmournezhad, K. (2022). A model for future study of human resources in oil industry with a focus on potential abilities. Strategic Studies in Oil and Energy Industry, 13(52), 81-100. (Persain)
Ayoubi, M., Mehrabanfar, E., & Banaitis, A. (2018). Guidelines on designing conceptual framework for strategic management with application to the energy industry. Administrative Sciences, 8(3), 27. https://doi.org/10.3390/admsci8030027
Barrales, V (2015). Dynamic capabilities, human resources and operating routines: A new product development approach. Industrial Management & Data Systems, 115(8), 138-142.  https://doi.org/10.1108/IMDS-02-2015-0058
Bondarouk, T., & Brewster, Ch. (2016). Conceptualising the future of HRM and technology research. The International Journal of Human Resource Management, 27)21 (, 2652-2671. https://doi.org/10.1080/09585192.2016.1232296
Brown, K (2017). Performance metrics for human resource alignment. Information System Management, 20)38(, 213-296. https://doi.org/10.1201/1078/43647.20.4.20030901/77291.6
Bruun Edvard, P. G., & Duka Alban (2018). Artificial intelligence, jobs and the future of work: Racing with the machines. Basic Income Studies, De Gruyter, 13(2), 1-15, December.
Eslaer, R. (2007). New thoughts in the new millennium (translated into Farsi by the center of strategic planning and studies). Tehran: Institute of Education and Research in Defense Industry. (Persain)
Harney, B., Fu, N., & Freeney, Y. (2018). Balancing tensions: Buffering the impact of organisational restructuring and downsizing on employee well-being. Human Resource Management Journal, 28(2), 235-254. https://doi.org/10.1111/1748-8583.12175
Horton, A. (1999). A simple guide to successful foresight. Foresight, 1(1), 5-9.
Jalloh, A., Habib, M., & Turay, B. (2016). The Effects of human resource planning in the implementation of operational activties in large scale enterprises. International Journal of Information, Business and Management, 8(1), 252-274. https://doi.org/10.22111/.2019.21672.3554
Kazemi, M. (2019). Identifying the potential abilities of drug manufacturing industry. Futurology of Management, 30(2), 1-11. (Persain)
Keshavarz Tork, M., Shiroyepour, Sh., & Gholizadeh Zavashti, M. (2020). Strategic future study of public human resources of Iran with a focus on technology in the 2045. Futurology of Iran, 5(2), 67. (Persain)
Latifi, M., Mohammadbeigi, F., Allahbakhshian, L., & Davaridolatabadi, N. (2019). A model of higher strategic strengthening of human resources in the public libraries of the country through a future approach. Futurology of Iran, 4(2), 203. (Persain)
Lin, C., & Hsu, M. (2016). Holistic decision system for human resource capability identification. Industrial Management & Data Systems, 110(2), 230-248. https://doi.org/10.1108/02635571011020322
Lino, V. S. (2005). Fourth generation war (translated into Farsi by Mohammadshad Moradi). Monthly Journal of National Defense University, 7. (Persain)
Mahmood, M., & Absar, M. M. N. (2015). Human Resource Management Practices in Bangladesh: Current Scenario and Future Challenges. South Asian Journal of Human Resources Management, 2(2) 171-188. https://doi.org/10.1177/2322093715599481
Malekifar, A. (2006). An introduction to futurology: the science and art of discovering future and manifesting better days. Tehran: Karaneh Elm Press. (Persain)
Martin, B. R. (1995). Foresight in science and technology. Echnology Analysis & Strategic Management, 7(2), 139-168.
Mashali, B., & Shibani, H. (2019). A mixed model of future study of human resources in the public sector. Public Management Studies, 12(44), 79-105. (Persain)
Mohammadpour, A., Mousavi, S., Nazarpouri, A., & Vahdati, H. (2020). A behavioral model for future study of jobs in oil industry through the inferential structured modelling: the case of employers in oil industry. Futurology of Iran, 5(2), 307-383. (Persain)
Parry E., & Battista, V. )2019(. The impact of emerging technologies on work: A review of the evidence and implications for the human resource function. Emerald Open Research, 1, 5 https://doi.org/10.12688/emeraldopenres.12907.1
Rachinger, M., Rauter, R., Müller, Ch., Vorraber, W., & Schirgi, E. (2018). Digitalization and its influence on business model innovation. Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management, 30(8), 1143-1160. https://doi.org/10.1108/JMTM-01-2018-0020
Rastegari, H., Hosseini, S. H., & Ghayoor, H. (2020). Designing and developing the strategic foresight capabilities of medical universities in the accidents and crises of the country with emphasis on human resource agility’, Int. J. Logistics Systems and Management, 36(1), 124-137. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJLSM.2020.107238
Sakka, F., El Maknouzi, M. E., & Sadok, H. (2022). Human resource management in the era of artificial intelligence: future HR work practices, anticipated skill set, financial and legal implications. Academy of Strategic Management Journal, 21(S1), 1-14
Seyed Mashhadi, P., Ghalambaz, F., & Esfandiari, A. (2011). The significance of oil industry in manufacturing and employment in Iran’s economy and its impact on economic activities. Studies in Economic Development, 1(2), 133-161. (Persain)
Singh, B., & Rao, M. K. (2016). Effect of intellectual capital on dynamic capabilities. Journal of Organizational Change Management 29(2), 129-149. https://doi.org/10.1108/JOCM-12-2014-0225
Taheridamneh, M., & Khorshidi, A. (2014). Futurology of human resources in law enforcement of IRI through a scenario and cross-sectional study. Journal of Human Resources Management, 5(36), 29-50. (Persain)
Ulrich, D., & Dulebohn, J. H. (2015). Are we there yet? What's next for HR?. Human Resource Management Review, 25(2), 188-204.
Uysal, G. (2020). Strategic HR Director Position: Implementation of SHRM in Firms. Management Studies, 8(5), 373-380.
Wright, P. M. (2021). Rediscovering the “human” in strategic human capital. Human Resource Management Review, 31(4). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hrmr.2021.100878
Yadav, P., & Singh, J. (2014). Paradigm shift in human resource management in presentscenario: emerging trends. SUMEDHA Journal of Management, 3(3), 59-72.