عوامل اثرگذار بر شدت انرژی در استان‌های کشور با تاکید بر پیوندهای فضایی

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد خوارزمی تهران

2 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی سیستم‌های اقتصادی و اجتماعی، دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه خوارزمی

چکیده

امروزه میزان مصرف انرژی برای کارشناسان و ناظران اقتصادی یکی از مؤلفه‌های ارزیابی عملکرد کشورها و دولت‌هاست و شدت انرژی یکی از شاخص‌های بررسی کارایی مصرف انرژی تلقی می‌شود. هدف اصلی این پژوهش، بررسی برخی عوامل اثرگذار بر شدت انرژی از جمله تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه، صنعتی شدن و زیرساخت‌های حمل‌و‌نقل است که با در نظر گرفتن پیوندهای فضایی بین مناطق (استان‌های) کشور در طی دوره زمانی ۱۳۸۷ تا ۱۳۹۲ تحلیل شده است. برای این منظور، روش اقتصاد سنجی پانل فضایی برای برآورد مدل به کار رفت. نتایج مدل خودرگرسیو فضایی با خطای فضایی (SAC) نشان داد شدت انرژی در ایران تحت تأثیر عامل فضایی بوده و میزان آن علاوه بر عوامل داخلی یک استان، به شدت انرژی استان‌های مجاور نیز وابسته است. به عبارت دیگر، هرگونه شوک خارجی وارد شده بر یک استان به کاهش شدت انرژی در استان‌های همسایه منجر می‌شود. همچنین بر اساس نتایج، تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه دارای اثر منفی و معنادار و متغیرهای صنعتی شدن و زیرساخت‌های حمل‌ونقل دارای اثر مثبت و معنادار بر شدت انرژی در استان‌های ایران است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Influential Factors of Energy Intensity in Iran’s Provinces with emphasis on Spatial Linkages

نویسندگان [English]

  • Siab Mamipour 1
  • Somayeh Karami 2
1 Assistant prof of Economics, Kharazmi university
2 MSc Student of Economic and Social Systems, Kharazmi University, Economic Department, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Todays, energy consumption for experts and economists is one of the components of the performance evaluation of governments and countries, and energy intensity is considered as one of the indicators for assessing energy efficiency. The main purpose of this paper is to study some of the influential factors of energy intensity, such as GDP per capita, industrialization and transportation infrastructure which has been studied considering the spatial links between the provinces during the period from 2008 to 2014. For this purpose, the spatial panel econometric method has been used to estimate the model. The results of Spatial Autoregressive Model with Auto Regressive disturbances (SAC) show that the energy intensity was influenced by the spatial factor in Iran. So, the energy intensity in a province is not only influenced by the internal factors of the province but is also influenced by the energy intensity of the adjacent province. In other words, any external shock to a province will lead to a reduction in energy intensity in adjacent provinces. Also, the results show that GDP per capita has a negative and significant effect and industrialization and transport infrastructure variables have a positive and significant effect on energy intensity in Iran's provinces.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • energy intensity
  • adjacency
  • Spatial Panel
  • Spatial Autoregressive Model with Auto Regressive disturbances (SAC)
  • Iran's provinces
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