تحولات سیاسی کابینه و اثرات آن بر بی ثباتی رشد اقتصادی ایران

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دکتری، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان

2 پژوهشگر پسا دکتری، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه تهران

3 دکتری، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه یزد

چکیده

هدف اصلی این تحقیق بررسی تحولات سیاسی کابینه و اثرات آن بر بی ثباتی رشد اقتصادی ایران در بازه زمانی 1362 تا 1391 است. بدین منظور اقتصاد ایران به دو بخش نفتی و غیرنفتی تقسیم شد. با استفاده از مفهوم هم‌انباشتگی انگل و گرنجر، اثرات متغیرهای ریسک سیاسی، تغییر کابینه (دولت پایه، دولت‌ سازندگی، دولت اصلاحات و دولت عدالت)، نیروی کار، حجم سرمایه و صادرات بر رشد اقتصادی واکاوی شد.
نتایج بخش نفتی نشان داد دولت اصلاحات در سرمایه، نیروی‌کار و ریسک سیاسی بهتر از سایر دولت‌ها عمل کرده است. همچنین دولت‌های مورد بررسی در زمینه صادرات نفت مانند دولت پایه عمل کرده‌اند. نتایج بخش غیرنفتی گویای آن است که اثر صادرات بر رشد اقتصادی در دولت‌ عدالت مانند دولت پایه است؛ اما در دولت سازندگی و اصلاحات اینگونه نیست. اثر نیروی کار بر رشد اقتصادی در دولت پایه معنادار نیست؛ اما در دولت‌های سازندگی، اصلاحات و عدالت مثبت و معنادار است. ریسک سیاسی در دولت اصلاحات (نسبت به دولت‌های دیگر) بیشترین اثر را بر رشد اقتصادی داشته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Cabinet political changes and its effects on the instability of economic growth in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Foroogh Jahantigh 1
  • Madjid Hatefi Madjumerd 2
  • omolbanin Jalali 3
1 Ph.D, department of economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan
2 Postdoctoral Researcher, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran
3 Ph.D, Department of Economics, Yazd University
چکیده [English]

The main purpose of this study is to examine the political developments of the Cabinet and its effects on the instability of economic growth in Iran from 1968 to 2012. In this regard, Iran's economic structure was divided into two oil and non-oil parts. Using the concept of Engle Granger co-integration, the effects of political risk, Cabinet change (basis, development, and reform and justice governments), and labor, capital stock and export variables are evaluated on economic growth. Oil sector Results showed that the reform government has performed better than other government in the capital, labor and political risk. In oil exports, Studied Governments has also performed such as basic government. The results of the non-oil sector showed that the effect of exports on economic growth in the justice government is like the basic government, but in the development and reform governments is not. The effect of labor on economic growth is not meaningful, in the basic government; but in development, reforms and justice developments are positive and meaningful. Political risk in the reform government (compared to other governments) has had the greatest impact on economic growth.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Cabinet Change
  • political risk
  • Oil Economic
  • Non- Oil Economic
Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., Robinson, J. A., Yared, P. (2008). “Income and democracy”. Am. Econ. Rev. 98, 808-842. [DOI: 10.1257/AER.98.3.808]
Aisen, A., & Veiga, F. J. (2006). “Does political instability lead to higher inflation? A panel data analysis”. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1379-1389. [DOI: 10.1353/MCB.2006.0064]
Aisen, A., & Veiga, F. J. (2013). “How does political instability affect economic growth?”. European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, 29(C), 151-167. [DOI: 10.1016/J.EJPOLECO.2012.11.001]
Alesina, A. et al. (1996). “Political Instability and Economic Growth”. Journal of Economic Growth, 1(2), 189-211. [DOI: 10.1007/BF00138862]
Alesina, A., & Alexander, F. Wagner (2006). “Choosing (and Reneging on) Exchange Rate Regimes”. Journal of the European Economic Association, 4(4), 770-799.
Alesina, A., & Drazen, A. (1991). “Why are fiscal stabilizations delayed”. American Economic Review81, 1170-1180.
Alesina, A., & Perotti, R. (1995). “Fiscal Expansions and Adjustments in OECD Countries”.    Economic  Policy, 21, 205-48. [DOI: 10.2307/1344590]
Alexeev, M., & Conrad, R. (2009). “The Natural Resource Curse and Economic Transition”. Caepr Working Papers 2009-018, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
Alodadi, A., & Benhin, J. (2015). “Long Term Economic Growth in Oil-Rich Saudi Arabia: What is the role for non-oil sectors?”. Economic Issues, 20, Part 1.
Alshahrani, M. S. A., & Alsadiq, M. A. J. (2014). “Economic Growth and Government Spending in Saudi Arabia: an Empirical Investigation”. International Monetary Fund, Working Paper, 14/3.
Al-Yousif, Y. K. (1997). “Exports and Economic Growth: Some Empirical Evidence from the Arab Gulf Countries”. Applied Economics, 29(6), 693-697. [DOI: 10.1080/000368497326624]
Anaman, K. A. (2004). “Determinants of Economic Growth in Brunei Darussalam”. Journal of Asian Economics, 15(4), 777-796. [DOI: 10.1016/J.ASIECO.2004.05.019]
Asgharpour, H., Ahmadian, K., & Manbayi, O. (2013). “Analyzing the impact of political instability on the economic growth in Iran: An APARCH non-linear approach”. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policies, 21(68), 175-194. (Persain)
Asseery, A., & Al-Sheikh, H. (2004). “The Determinants of the Saudi Economic Growth”. Journal of Faculty of Commerce for Scientific Research, Alexandria University, Egypt, 41, 97-116.
Awokuse, T. O. (2007). “Causality Between Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Transition Economies”. Economics Letters, 94(3), 389-395.
Becker, J., Fuest, C., & Hemmelgarn, T. (2006). Corporate Tax Reform and Foreign Direct Investment in Germany - Evidence From Firm-Level Data. CESIFO Working Paper (1722).
Bengoa, M., & Sanchez-Robles, B. (2003). “Foreign direct investment, economic freedom and growth: new evidence from Latin America”. European Journal of Political Economy, 9(3), 529-545. [DOI: 10.1016/S0176-2680(03)00011-9]
Borner, S., & Paldam, M. (1998). The Political Dimension of Economic Growth. Palgrave Macmillan, New York.
Boucekkine, R., Prieur, F., & Puzon, K. (2016). “On the timing of political regime changes in resource-dependent economies”. European Economic Review 85, 188-207. [DOI: 10.1016/J.EUROECOREV.2016.02.016]
Brückner, M., & Gradstein, M. (2015). “Income growth, ethnic polarization, and political risk: Evidence from international oil price shocks”. Journal of Comparative Economics 43(2015), 575-594. [DOI: 10.1016/J.JCE.2014.05.005]
Büsse, M., & Hefeker, C. (2005). Political Risk, Institutions and Foreign Direct Investment Hamburg Institute of International Economics Discussion Paper 315.
Büsse, M., & Hefeker, C. (2007). “Political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment”. European Journal of Political Economy, 23(2), 397-415. [DOI: 10.1016/J.EJPOLECO.2006.02.003]
Büsse, M., Königer, J., & Nunnenkamp, P. (2010). “FDI promotion through bilateral investment treaties: more than a bit?”. Review of World Economics, 146(1), 147-177. [DOI: 10.1007/S10290-009-0046-X]
Bussmann, M. (2010). “Foreign direct investment and militarized international conflict”. Journal of Peace Research, 47(2), 143-153. [DOI: 10.1177/0022343309354143]
Büthe, T., & Milner, H. V. (2008). “The Politics of Foreign Direct Investment into Developing Countries: Increasing FDI through International Trade Agreements?”. American Journal of Political Science, 52(4), 22. [DOI: 10.1111/J.1540-5907.2008.00340.X]
Campos, N., & Nugent, J. (2002). “Who is afraid of political instability?”. Journal of Development Economics 67, 157-172. [DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3878(01)00181-X]
Castro, V., & Veiga, F. J. (2004). “Political business cycles and inflation stabilization”. Economics Letters83(1), 1-6. [DOI: 10.1016/J.ECONLET.2003.07.016]
Clague, C., Keefer, P., Knack, S., & Olson, M. (1996). “Property and contract rights in autocracies and democracies”. Journal of economic growth, 1, 243-276. [DOI: 10.1007/BF00138864]
Daniele, V., & Marani, U. (2010). “Organized crime, the quality of local institutions and FDI in Italy: A panel data analysis”. European Journal of Political Economy, In Press, Corrected Proof. [DOI: 10.1016/J.EJPOLECO.2010.04.003]
Darby, J., Li, C., & Muscatelli, A. (2004). “Political uncertainty, public expenditure and growth”. European Journal of Political Economy 20, 153-179. [DOI: 10.1016/J.EJPOLECO.2003.01.001]
Dash, R. K., & Sharma, C. (2008). “Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence from India”. The IUP Journal of Public Finance, 6(3), 60-69.
Devereux, M., & Wen, J. F. (1998). “Political instability, capital taxation, and growth”. European Economic Review 42, 1635-1651. [DOI: 10.1016/S0014-2921(97)00100-1]
Dimitrios, A., & Costas, S. (2000). “The Role of Political Instability in Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Greece”. Economic Notes by Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, 29, 355-374. [DOI: 10.1111/1468-0300.00037]
Docouliagos, H., & Ulubasog ˇlu, M. A. (2008). “Democracy and economic growth: a meta-analysis”. Am. J. Pol. Sci. 52, 61-83. [DOI: 10.2469/FAJ.V52.N6.2038]
Erb, C. B., Harvey, C. R., & Viskanta, T. E. (1996). “Political risk, economic risk, and financial risk”. Financ. Anal. J. 52, 29-46. [DOI: 10.2469/FAJ.V52.N6.2038]
Friedman, T. (2006). “The first law of petropolitics”. Ecologist-London and Wadebridge then Slinfold Then London-36(6), 24.
Fung, K. C., Garcia-Herrero, A., & Siu, A. (2009). “A Comparative Empirical Examination of Outward Foreign Direct Investment from Four Asian Economies: People’s Republic China; Japan; Republic of Korea; and Taipei, China”. Asian Development Review, 26(2), 87-101.
Gurgul, H., & Lach, Q. (2013). “Political instability and economic growth: Evidence from twodecades of transition in CEE”. Communist and Post-Communist Studies 46, 189-202. [DOI: 10.1016/J.POSTCOMSTUD.2013.03.008]
Gyimah-Brempong, K., & Camacho, S. (1998). “Political instability, human capital, and economic growth in Latin America”. Journal of Developing Areas 32, 449-466. Retrievd from: https://www.jstor.org/stable/4192803
Haber, S., & Menaldo, M. (2011). “Do Natural Resources Fuel Authoritarianism? A Reappraisal of the Resource Curse”. American Political Science Review. 10, (1).
Hasanov, F., & Samadova, I. (2010). “The Impact of Real Exchange Rate on Non-Oil Exports: The Case of Azerbaijan, Munich Personal Report Archive”. Retrievd from: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/29556
Hemati, A., & Mohebinezhad, Sh. (2009). “Analyzing the impact of macro-economic variables on the credit risk of the banks”. Journal of Economic Research, 6, 33-59. (Persain)
Hill, S., & Munday, M. (1995). “Foreign Manufacturing Investment in France and the UK: A Regional Analysis of Locational Determinants”. Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, 86(4), 17. Retrievd from: http://nature.berkeley.edu/er100/readings/Friedman_2006.pdf; http://www2.lse.ac.uk/IDEAS/publications/reports/pdf/SU004/shepherd.pdf
Jafari Samimi, A., & Khebreh, Sh. (2013). “The impact of tourism on the human resource development”. Journal of Tourism Planning and Development, 7, 11-24. (Persain)
Jensen, N. (2004). “Crisis, Conditions, and Capital: The Effect of International Monetary Fund Agreements on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows”. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 48(2), 194-210. [DOI: 10.1177/0022002703262860]
Jong-a-Pin, R. (2009). “On the measurement of political instability and its impact on economic growth”. European Journal of Political Economy 25, 15-29. [DOI: 10.1016/J.EJPOLECO.2008.09.010]
Khalighi, L., & Shoukat Fadaei, M. (2015). “A study on the effects of exchange rate and foreign policies on Iranians dates export”. Journal of the Saudi Society of Agricultural Sciences, 1-7. [DOI: 10.1016/J.JSSAS.2015.03.005]
Khan, M. S., & Reinhart, C. M. (1990). “Private Investment and Economic Growth in Developing Countries”. World Development, 18(1), 19-27. [DOI: 1016/0305-750X(90)90100-C]
Kogid, M., Mulok, D., Beatrice, Y., & Mansur, K. (2010). “Determinant Factors of Economic Growth in Malaysia: Multivariate Cointegration and Causality Analysis”. European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, 24, 123-137. Retrievd from: http://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/195
Kolstad, I., & Villanger, E. (2008). “Determinants of foreign direct investment in services”. European Journal of Political Economy, 24(2), 518-533. [DOI: 10.1016/J.EJPOLECO.2007.09.001]
Komeijani, A., Gorji, E., & Eghbali, A. (2013). “Political economics of economic growth”. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policies, 21(65), 61-82. (Persain)
_______________________________ (2014). “A new model on the cycles of commercial politics: The case of Iran”. Iranian Journal of Trade Studies, 18(71), 1-34. (Persain)
Konya, L. (2004). “Export-Led Growth, Growth-Driven Export, Both or None? Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries”.  Applied Econometrics and International.
Lehkonen, H., & Heimonen, K. (2015). “Democracy, political risks and stock market performance”. Journal of International Money and Finance, 59(2015), 77-99. [DOI: 10.1016/J.JIMONFIN.2015.06.002]
Lucas, R. E. (1988). “On the Mechanics of Economic Development”. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, 3-32.
McDonald, R. L., & Siegel, D. (1986). “The Value of Waiting to Invest”. NBER. [DOI: 10.2307/1884175]
Mobarak, A. M., (2005). “Democracy, volatility, and economic development”. Rev. Econ. Stat. 87, 348-361.
Montiel, J. (2011). Macroeconomics in Emerging Markets. Cambridge: Cambridge UP.
Nofarasti, A., Ahmadi Shadmehri, M., Razmi, M., & Nofarasti, M. (2018). “The impact of inequality on the development of human resources: The case of Iran”. Quarterly Journal of Macro and Strategic Policies, 6(24), 81-100. [DOI: 10.32598/JMSP.6.4.620] (Persain)
Nurudeen, A.,  & Usman, A. (2010) “Government Expenditure And Economic Growth In Nigeria, 1970-2008?: A Disaggregated Analysis”. Business and Economic Journal, 1-11.
Odedokun, M. O. (1997). “Relative Effects of Public Versus Private Investment Spending on Economic Efficiency and Growth in Developing Countries”. Applied Economics, 29(10), 1325-1336. [DOI: 10.1080/00036849700000023]
Persson, T., & Tabellini, G. (2007). “The growth effect of democracy: Is it heterogeneous and how it can be estimated”. NBERWorking Paper, 13150.
Prochniak, M. (2011). “Determinants of Economic Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: the Global Crisis Perspective”. Post-Communist Economies, 23(4), 449-468. [DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2011.622566]
Rao, B. B., & Cooray, A. (2012). “How Useful Is Growth Literature for Policies in the Developing Countries?”. Applied Economics, 44(6), 671-681. [DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2010.517188]
Razini, A., & Ghobadi, N. (2004). “Analyzing the Impact of Exports on Economic Growth. Department of Planning and Economic Review”. Office of Economic Research, Department of International Trade, Iran, 12-19.
Rodrik, D., & Wacziarg, R. (2005). “Do democratic transition produce bad economic outcomes?”. Am. Econ. Rev. 95, 50-55. [DOI: 10.1257/000282805774670059]
Ross , M. (2001). “Does Oil Hinder Democracy?”. World Politics, 53, 03, 25-361.
Schubert, S. F., Brida, J. G., & Risso, W. A. (2011). “The Impacts of International Tourism Demand on Economic Growth of Small Economies Dependent on Tourism”. Tourism Management, 32(2), 377-385. [DOI: 10.1016/J.TOURMAN.2010.03.007]
Serven, L., & Solitnano, A. (1992). “Private Investment and Macroeconomic Adjustment a Survey”. The World Bank Research Observer, 7(1), 95-114.
Shepherd,  B. (2010). “Political Stability Crucial for Growth”. London School of Economics and Political Science. Retrievd from: http://www.lse.ac.uk/ideas/publications/reports/pdf/su004/shepherd.pdf
Solow, R. (1956). “A Contribution to Theory of Economic Growth”. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, 65-94. [DOI: 10.2307/1884513]
Teixeira, A., & Fortuna, N. (2003). “Human Capital, Innovation Capability and Economic Growth (No. 131)”. Universidade Do Porto, Faculdade De Economia Do Porto.
Tsui, K. (2010). “Resource Curse, Political Entry, And Deadweight Costs”. Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, 22(3), 471-497. [DOI: 10.1111/J.1468-0343.2010.00373.X]
Wei, S.-J., & Wu, Y. (2002). “Negative alchemy? Corruption, composition of capital flows, and currency crises”. In S. Edwards, & J. Frankel (Eds.), Preventing currency crises in emerging markets. NBER Conference Report series (pp. 461-501). University of Chicago Press. Working Paper Series.
Xu, Z., & Li, H. (2008). “Political freedom, economic freedom, and income convergence: do stages of economic development matter?”. Public Choice 135, 183-205. [DOI: 10.1007/S11127-007-9253-Y]
Zorgui, I. (2011). “Institutional Quality and Political   Risk”. Journal of Economics, Finance   and Management Sciences, 3(1).