تحولات سیاسی کابینه و اثرات آن بر بی ثباتی رشد اقتصادی ایران

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دکتری، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان

2 پژوهشگر پسا دکتری، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه تهران

3 دکتری، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه یزد

چکیده

هدف اصلی این تحقیق بررسی تحولات سیاسی کابینه و اثرات آن بر بی ثباتی رشد اقتصادی ایران در بازه زمانی 1362 تا 1391 است. بدین منظور اقتصاد ایران به دو بخش نفتی و غیرنفتی تقسیم شد. با استفاده از مفهوم هم‌انباشتگی انگل و گرنجر، اثرات متغیرهای ریسک سیاسی، تغییر کابینه (دولت پایه، دولت‌ سازندگی، دولت اصلاحات و دولت عدالت)، نیروی کار، حجم سرمایه و صادرات بر رشد اقتصادی واکاوی شد.
نتایج بخش نفتی نشان داد دولت اصلاحات در سرمایه، نیروی‌کار و ریسک سیاسی بهتر از سایر دولت‌ها عمل کرده است. همچنین دولت‌های مورد بررسی در زمینه صادرات نفت مانند دولت پایه عمل کرده‌اند. نتایج بخش غیرنفتی گویای آن است که اثر صادرات بر رشد اقتصادی در دولت‌ عدالت مانند دولت پایه است؛ اما در دولت سازندگی و اصلاحات اینگونه نیست. اثر نیروی کار بر رشد اقتصادی در دولت پایه معنادار نیست؛ اما در دولت‌های سازندگی، اصلاحات و عدالت مثبت و معنادار است. ریسک سیاسی در دولت اصلاحات (نسبت به دولت‌های دیگر) بیشترین اثر را بر رشد اقتصادی داشته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Cabinet political changes and its effects on the instability of economic growth in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Foroogh Jahantigh 1
  • Madjid Hatefi Madjumerd 2
  • omolbanin Jalali 3
1 Ph.D, department of economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan
2 Postdoctoral Researcher, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran
3 Ph.D, Department of Economics, Yazd University
چکیده [English]

The main purpose of this study is to examine the political developments of the Cabinet and its effects on the instability of economic growth in Iran from 1968 to 2012. In this regard, Iran's economic structure was divided into two oil and non-oil parts. Using the concept of Engle Granger co-integration, the effects of political risk, Cabinet change (basis, development, and reform and justice governments), and labor, capital stock and export variables are evaluated on economic growth. Oil sector Results showed that the reform government has performed better than other government in the capital, labor and political risk. In oil exports, Studied Governments has also performed such as basic government. The results of the non-oil sector showed that the effect of exports on economic growth in the justice government is like the basic government, but in the development and reform governments is not. The effect of labor on economic growth is not meaningful, in the basic government; but in development, reforms and justice developments are positive and meaningful. Political risk in the reform government (compared to other governments) has had the greatest impact on economic growth.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Cabinet Change
  • Political Risk
  • Oil Economic
  • Non- Oil Economic
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