بررسی اثرات درونزایی بر تقویت برون نگری اقتصاد ایران

نوع مقاله: پژوهش کاربردی

نویسندگان

1 عضو هیأت علمی دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه خوارزمی

2 عضو هیات علمی دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه خوارزمی

3 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد اسلامی دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه خوارزمی

چکیده

ددرون‌زایی و برون‌گرایی اقتصاد دو رکن مهم سیاست‌های کلی اقتصاد مقاومتی محسوب می‌شوند. بنا به اهمیت موضوع، در مقاله حاضر به بررسی اثرات درونزایی بر تقویت برون نگری اقتصاد ایران ‏با استفاده از رویکرد خودرگرسیون برداری (VAR) طی دوره‌ زمانی 1357-1394 پرداخته شده است. بر اساس نتایج، در بلندمدت افزایش در شاخص درون‌زایی اقتصاد، تقویت نرخ ارز حقیقی و افزایش نسبت قیمت کالاهای صادراتی به وارداتی، برون‌گرایی اقتصاد ایران را تقویت می‌کند، بالعکس افزایش سهم هزینه‌های تحقیق و توسعه از تولید ناخالص داخلی باعث می‌شود برون‌گرایی اقتصاد کاهش یابد. در کوتاه‌مدت نیز با ایجاد شوک مثبت بر درونزایی اقتصاد، برون‌گرایی اقتصاد در سال دوم اندکی کاهش پیدا می‌کند اما از سال سوم تاثیرات مثبت می‌شود. بر اساس توابع تجزیه واریانس در بلندمدت حدود 60 درصد تغییرات برون گرایی اقتصاد مربوط به خود آن، 10/0 درصد آن مربوط به درون‌زایی اقتصاد، 38/9 درصد مربوط به نرخ ارز حقیقی، 12/5 درصد آن به مربوط به نسبت قیمت کالاهای صادراتی به وارداتی و 18/0 درصد آن نیز مربوط به هزینه-های تحقیق و توسعه است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Impact of Endogenous Economy on strengthening Iranian Outward-looking economy (resistive economy)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Vahid Shaghaghi 1
  • Hossein Amiri 2
  • Maryam Roshan moez 3
1 Faculty of Economy, Kharazmi University
2 Faculty of Economy, Kharazmi University
3 Master of Art in Economics, Kharazmi University
چکیده [English]

Abstract
The making an endogenous economy as well as strengthening of the extraversion economy are as two important factors in resistive economy.
According to the importance of these two factors in improving of economy resistance, the present article examines the effects of increasing economy endogenous on strengthening outward-looking economy during the period 1357-1394 by using the VAR approach.
Based on the results, the long-term rise in the index of endogenous economy, the strengthening of the real exchange rate and the ratio of export prices to import will strengthen extroversion economy, but increasing in the share of spending on research and development of GDP will decreasing extroversion economy. In short term by creating a positive shock on the economy endogenous index, extroversion economy fell slightly in the second year, but effects would be the positive third year.
Also the results of variance decomposition in the long term reveal that 60 percent variations on extroversion economy index is explained by itself, and the other factors including of endogenous economy index, real exchange rate, ratio of exporting goods price to import and research & development spending are explaining 0.10 percent, 9.38 percent, 5.12 percent and 0.18 percent respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Resistive economy
  • Endogenous economy
  • Outward-looking economy
  • Iran Economy
  1. Agharazi Dermani, M., Beiranvand, M., & Nasr Esfahani, A. (2018). [Estimation of resistance economics indices (Persian)]. Quarterly Journal of the Macro and Strategic Policies, 5(Resistive Economy), 21-40.
  2. Anderson, J. E. (1979). A theoretical foundation for the gravity equation. The American Economic Review, 69(1), 106-16.
  3. Babazadeh, M., Farokhnejad, F., & Aghababaei, M. E. (2011). [Effects of changes in the exchange rates on the banks’ profitability in short-term and long term: VECM approach (Persian)]. Journal of Monetary & Banking Research, 4(9), 205-25.
  4. Behbudi, D., & Amiri, B. (2010). [The long run relationship between knowledge based economy and economic growth in Iran (Persian)]. Journal of Science & Technology Policy, 2(4), 23-32.
  5. Bergstrand, J. H. (1985). The gravity equation in international trade: Some microeconomic foundations and empirical evidence. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67(3), 474-81. [DOI:10.2307/1925976]
  6. Bergstrand, J. H. (1989). The generalized gravity equation, monopolistic competition, and the factor-proportions theory in international trade. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 71(1), 143-53. [DOI:10.2307/1928061]
  7. Carrere, C. (2006). Revisiting the effects of regional trade agreements on trade flows with proper specification of the gravity model. European Economic Review, 50(2), 223-47. [DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2004.06.001]
  8. Cho, G., Sheldon, I. M., & McCorriston, S. (2002). Exchange rate uncertainty and agricultural trade. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 84(4), 931-42. [DOI:10.1111/1467-8276.00044]
  9. Edmonds, C., Croix, S. L., & Li, Y. (2008). China trade: Busting gravity’s bounds. Journal of Asian Economics, 19(5-6), 455-66. [DOI:10.1016/j.asieco.2008.09.013]
  10. Fathi, Y. (2002). [Comparative comparison of the effects of two approaches to economic globalization and regionalism on global trade (Persian)]. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policies, 10(21), 131-60.
  11. Feshari, M., & pourghaffar, J. (2014). [Exploring and explaining the pattern of resistance economy in Iranian economy (Persian)]. Economic Journal, 14(5,6), 29-40.
  12. Frankel, J. A. (1993). Is Japan creating a Yen Bloc in the East Asia and the Pacific? In J. A. Frankel, & M. Kahler (Eds), Regionalism and Rivalry: Japan and the United States in Pacific Asia. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [DOI:10.7208/chicago/9780226260242.001.0001]
  13. Frankel, J., & Wei, S.J. (2013). Regionalization of world trade and currencies: Economics and politics. In J. Frankel (Ed), The Regionalization of the World Economy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
  14. Furtan, W. H. & van Melle, B. M. (2004). Canada agricultural trade in North America: Do national borders matter. Review of Agricultural Economics, 26(3), 317-31. [DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9353.2004.00182.x]
  15. Gani, A. & Al Mawali, N. R. (2013). Oman’s trade and opportunities of integration with the Asian economies. Economic Modelling, 31, 766-74. [DOI:10.1016/j.econmod.2013.01.015]
  16. Heidari, H., & Zarei, F. (2011). [Investigating the commercial relations between Iran and its other major trading partner focusing on J-Curve Test (Persian)]. Quartery Journal of Economical Modeling, 6(18), 83-103.
  17. Kalirajan, K. (2010). Sources of variation in export flows over time: A suggested methodology of measurement. International Journal of Business and Economics, 9(2), 175-8.
  18. Kaur, S., & Nanda, P. (2010). India’s export potential to other SAARC countries: A gravity model analysis. Journal of Global Economy, 6(3), 167-84.
  19. Khataei, M., & Moosavinik, S. H. (2008). [The effect of financial development in the relationship between the exchange rate fluctuations and economic growth (Persian)]. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 12(37), 1-19.
  20. Kristjansdottir, H. (2005). A gravity model for exports from Iceland. Centre for Applied Microeconometrics (CAM) Working Papers 2005-14. Copenhagen: University of Copenhagen.
  21. Noferesti, M. (2016). [Resilient economy and how it could be achieved (Persian)]. Quarterly Journal of the Macro and Strategic Policies. 4(Resistive Economy), 157-68.
  22. Olper, A., & Raimondi, V. (2008). Agricultural market integration in the OECD: A gravity-border effect approach. Food Policy, 33(2), 165-75. [DOI:10.1016/j.foodpol.2007.06.003]
  23. Peridy, N. (2005). The trade effects of the Euro-Mediterranean partnership: What are the lessons for ASEAN countries. Journal of Asian Economics, 16(1), 125-39. [DOI:10.1016/j.asieco.2004.12.001]
  24. Rottgers, D., Fabe, A., & Grote, U. (2010). The canola oil industry and European Union (EU) trade integration: A gravity model approach. Paper presented at the German Development Economics Conference, Hannover, Germany, 10 May 2010.
  25. Roy, M., & Rayhan, M. I. (2011). Trade flows of Bangladesh: A gravity model approach. Economics Bulletin, 31(1), 950-9.
  26. Shaghaghi Shahri, V., & Karim, M. H. (2016). [Resilient economy, corruption and endogenous economy (Case study: Iran) (Persian)]. Quarterly Journal of the Macro and Strategic Policies, 4(Resistive Economy), 63-90.
  27. Shahikitash, M. N. (2013). [The concept of competition in economics and its size in the Iranian economy (Persian)]. Commercial Surveys, 11(60), 1-16.
  28. Tavakoli, A., & Sayyah, M. (2010). [The impact of exchange rate fluctuations on economic activities in Iran (Persian)]. Journal of Monetary & Banking Research, 2(4), 59-78.
  29. Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the world economy: Suggestions for an international economic policy. New York: Twentieth Century Fund.
  30. Zainal Abidin, I. S., Abu Bakar, N. A. & Sahlan, R. (2013). The determinants of exports between Malaysia and the OIC member countries: A gravity model approach. Procedia Economics and Finance, 5(2013), 12-9. [DOI:10.1016/S2212-5671(13)00004-X]
  31. Zubaidi, A., Onwoka, K. O., & Shah Habibullah, K. (2007). Is a regional trade bloc a prelude to multilateral trade liberalization. Journal of Asian Economics, 18(2), 384-402. [DOI:10.1016/j.asieco.2007.02.004]