لزوم بازنگری سیاست ارزی برای تحقق اقتصاد مقاومتی با توجه به تراز تجاری و تولید ملی ایران (۱۳۹۵-۱۳۸۰)

نوع مقاله: پژوهش کاربردی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد روابط بین‌الملل دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

2 استادیار گروه علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

چکیده

ازجمله متغیرهای مؤثر بر تراز تجاری و تولید ملی هر کشوری، نرخ ارز است که هرگونه تغییر و نوسان در آن می‌تواند بر قیمت کالاهای وارداتی و صادراتی، درجه رقابت‌پذیری تولیدکننده داخلی در برابر تولیدکننده خارجی، تولید، اشتغال و به‌طورکلی تولید ثروت و قدرت کشور تأثیر بگذارد. ازآنجایی ‌که حمایت از تولیدات داخلی و افزایش تولید ناخالص ملی از جمله اهداف اصلی اقتصاد مقاومتی و همچنین سند چشم انداز ۱۴۰۴ است، تحقق این مهم نیازمند تعیین نرخ ارز مناسب است. هدف از این پژوهش بررسی تأثیر نرخ ارز در واردات و صادرات و همچنین تأثیر آن بر تولید ملی در طول سال‌های ۱۳۹۵-۱۳۸۰ استفاده کرد. یافته‌های پژوهش پیش رو بدین شکل است که اعمال سیاست تثبیت نرخ ارز اسمی و لحاظ نشدن تفاضل تورم ایران و میانگین جهانی در تعیین نرخ ارز که موجب سیر نزولی نرخ ارز حقیقی از سال ۱۳۸۰ تا ۱۳۹۱ و پایین آمدن آن از سطح تعادلی در سال‌های ۱۳۹۲ تا ۱۳۹۵ شد، افزایش واردات، کاهش رقابت‌پذیری تولیدکنندگان داخلی در برابر تولیدکنندگان خارجی و آسیب‌پذیری اقتصاد ملی را در پی داشته است. در این پژوهش با کمک مبانی نظری و تجربی نرخ ارز اسمی، حقیقی و تعدیلی سعی می‌شود تا تراز تجاری و تولید ملی کشور در برهه زمانی مذکور را با توجه به روش توصیفی-تحلیلی موردبررسی قرار دهیم و لزوم بازنگری در سیاست‌گذاری نرخ ارز را برای تحقق اقتصاد مقاومتی تبیین نماییم.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Necessity of Revising the Currency Policy: Looking at the Effect of Exchange Rate on Iran’s Trade Balance and National Production during 2001-2016

نویسندگان [English]

  • rahman habibi 1
  • Ali Sanaei 2
1 Student of International Relations Masters at Shahid Beheshti University
2 Assistant Professor of Political Science at Shahid Beheshti University
چکیده [English]

The exchange rate is among the most important variables that affect the trade balance and national production of each country through changing the price of imported and exported goods, the degree of domestic producer competitiveness against the foreign producer, and, in general, the production of wealth and power of the country. Supporting domestic production and increasing GDP is one of the main goals of the resistance economy as well as the 1404 (2025) landscape, and realizing it requires the establishment of an appropriate exchange rate. The purpose of this article is to rely on the experience of the exchange rate, import, and export as well as its impact on national production during 2001-2016. We find that the policy of fixing the nominal exchange rate and the non-consideration of the difference between Iran's inflation and the global average in determining the exchange rate, which caused the depreciation of the real exchange rate for most of this period has increased imports, reduced domestic producers’ competitiveness against foreign producers, and also led to the vulnerability of the national economy. We use economic theory and empirical evidence to examine the relation between the exchange rate and the trade balance during the mentioned period. The result clearly indicates a need for revising the exchange rate policy.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Exchange rate
  • Competitiveness
  • trade balance
  • national production
  • resistance economy

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سیاست‌های راهبردی و کلان

دوره 6، ویژه‌نامه سال 1397
بهار 1398
صفحه 750-769

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