کانال‌های اثرگذاری درآمدهای نفتی بر رشد اقتصادی ایران

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار و عضو هیئت علمی گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه آیت ا.. بروجردی

2 کارشناسی ارشد علوم اقتصادی، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی،تهران،ایران

10.30507/jmsp.2018.68825

چکیده

فرضیه نفرین منابع از پیچیده‌ترین تئوری‌هایی است که مبتنی براندیشه روش‌شناسی علم ابطال‌گرایی پوپر درعلم اقتصاد مطرح شده است و اقتصادانان مدل‌های مختلی به منظور آزمون این فرضیه طراحی نمودند. اما تجربیات متناقض در کشورهای مختلف مانع از تبدیل این فرضیه به قانون وحتی تئوری را نداد. هدف این پژوهش، ارزیابی کانال‌های اثرگذاری درآمدهای نفتی بر رشد اقتصادی ایران طی دوره‌‌ی 1357 تا 1395 با استفاده از مدل ساکس و وارنر است. نتایج نشان داد که درآمدهای نفتی به تنهایی برای رشد اقتصادی مضر نیستند و اثر مستقیم مثبتی بر رشد اقتصادی ایران دارند. اما هنگامی که طبق مدل پیشنهادی ساکس و وارنر متغیرهای توضیحی دیگر مانند سرمایه‌گذاری فیزیکی، درجه‌ی باز بودن اقتصاد، رابطه‌ی مبادله و سرمایه انسانی به عنوان کانال‌های اثرگذاری وارد مدل می‌شود، به دلیل اثر درآمدهای نفتی بر این متغیرها و سپس اثرگذاری منفی غیرمستقیم بر رشد اقتصادی، اثر کل درآمدهای نفتی بر رشد به شدت کاهش یافته و بسیار کم‌تر از مقدار اولیه می‌شود. هم‌چنین نتایج نشان داد که افزایش سرمایه‌گذاری فیزیکی، درجه‌ی باز بودن اقتصاد و ارتقای سرمایه انسانی، تأثیر مثبت و افزایش رابطه‌ی مبادله تأثیر منفی بررشد اقتصادی ایران دارد. علاوه بر این میزان اهمیت و نوع اثرگذاری هر کانال بر رشد اقتصادی مشخص گردید و مشاهده شد که به جز کانال سرمایه انسانی، اثر غیرمستقیم درآمدهای نفتی بر رشد اقتصادی ایران از هر کانال منفی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Transmission Channels of Oil Revenues on Economic Growth of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • seyyed parviz jalili kamju 1
  • hamid safarian 2
1 Assistance Professor of Economics, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University
2 MA in Economics, AllameTabatabai University
چکیده [English]

Resource curse hypothesis is one of the most complex theories, which is based on Popper's fictitious science methodology in economics and economists designed different models to test this hypothesis. But the contradictory experiences in different countries did not prevent the hypothesis from becoming a law and even a theory. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of oil revenues channels on Iran's economic growth during 1979-1959 using the Sakhs and Warner model. The results showed that oil revenues alone are not detrimental to economic growth and have a direct positive effect on Iran's economic growth. But when according to Sachs and Warner's proposed model, other explanatory variables such as physical investment, the degree of openness of the economy, the relationship of exchange and human capital are introduced into the channels of influence, due to the effect of oil revenues onthese variables and then the indirect negative impact on economic growth, The effect oftotal oil revenues on growth is sharply reduced and much less than the initial value. The result also showed that the increase ofphysical investment, the degree of openness of the economy and the promotion of human capital, has a positive effect and increasing the exchange relationship has a negative effect on Iran's economic growth. In addition, the significance andtype of effect of each channel on economic growth was determined and it was observed that except for the human capital channel, the indirect effect of oil revenues on Iran's economic growth from each channel was negative.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • "Oil Revenues"
  • "Economic Growth"
  • "Transmission Channels"
  • "Resource Curse Hypothesis"
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