Contemporary development theories emphasize that regional connectivity and cooperation are fundamental prerequisites for sustainable national development. Within this framework, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was introduced to promote regional integration and connectivity under the vision of reviving the ancient Silk Road. However, the current China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the Central Asian routes bypass both Afghanistan and Iran, diverging from the historical Silk Road while overlooking the strategic position, geopolitical significance, and developmental interests of these two countries.

This study aims to identify the principal driving forces and strategic uncertainties shaping the future of regional development and to develop plausible future scenarios for regional development through the establishment of a new East–West corridor passing through Afghanistan.

The research adopts an exploratory futures studies approach by integrating the Delphi method, structural analysis using MICMAC, and scenario development based on the Global Business Network (GBN) methodology. Initially, 160 influencing factors were identified through a comprehensive literature review and unstructured expert interviews. These factors were subsequently classified into 23 principal variables according to the PESTEL framework. The validity, consensus, and convergence of expert judgments were assessed using the Friedman, Kendall's W, and Wilcoxon tests. Structural analysis was then employed to examine the interrelationships among the variables and identify the key driving forces based on their influence and uncertainty, resulting in the construction of a scenario matrix and the development of four alternative scenarios: Golden Belt, Qaf Fortress, Vicious Cycle, and Protected Zones.