اثر سالمندی جمعیت بر هزینه‌های سلامت با رویکرد سیاست‌های کلی جمعیت

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دکتری علوم اقتصادی، دانشکدۀ مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

3 استادیار، گروه سیاست‌گذاری سلامت، پژوهشکدۀ آینده‌پژوهی در سلامت، دانشگاه علوم پزشکی کرمان، کرمان، ایران

4 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران

چکیده

طی چند دهۀ گذشته، ایران با تغییرات جمعیتی سریع، ازجمله کاهش شدید نرخ زادوولد و افزایش امید به زندگی، مواجه بوده و این امر موجب افزایش درصد سالمندان شده است. یکی از چالش‌های مهم سالمندی جمعیت افزایش هزینه‌های سلامت جوامع به‌دلیل نیاز زیاد سالمندان به انواع خدمات بهداشتی و درمانی است. ایـن پژوهش بـا توجـه بـه سیاسـت‌های کلـی جمعیتـی نظـام مقـدس جمهـوری اسـلامی درخصــوص ارتقای پویایی، بالندگی و جوانی جمعیت با افزایش نرخ باروری به بیش از سطح جانشینی، به‌دنبال بررسی تأثیر سالمندی جمعیت بر سهم هزینه‌های سلامت در تولید ناخالص داخلی است و با استفاده از داده‌های مرکز آمار ایران و داده‌های بانک جهانی، برای دورۀ زمانی 1360 تا 1398، انجام شده است. ابتدا الگویی برای سهم هزینه‌های سلامت در تولید ناخالص داخلی ارائه شد؛ سپس ضرایب آن با استفاده از الگوی خودرگرسیون با وقفه‌های گسترده برآورد شد. همچنین به‌منظور بررسی سرعت تعدیل مدل کوتاه‌مدت به مدل بلندمدت، الگوی تصحیح خطا برآورد گردید. نتایج نشان داد افزایش جمعیت سالمند در بلندمدت به افزایش هزینه‌های سلامت می‌انجامد؛ به‌طوری‌ که 1 درصد افزایش در شاخص سالمندی به 37/0 درصد افزایش در هزینه‌های سلامت منجر می‌شود. همچنین در بلندمدت، رشد متغیرهای تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه، شاخص قیمت در بخش بهداشت و درمان و شهرنشینی اثر مثبت و معنادار بر سهم هزینه‌های سلامت در تولید ناخالص داخلی دارد. ضریب تصحیح خطا نیز 46 درصد به‌دست آمد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Effect of Populating Aging on Health Costs Via the Population General Policy Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Somayeh Koochakzadeh 1
  • Hassan Heydari 2
  • Vahid Yazdi Feyzabadi 3
  • Alireza Shakibaie 4
1 PhD of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Health Policy, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
4 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
چکیده [English]

Since the last couple of decades ago, Iran has faced swift population changes, such as reduced fertility, increased life expectancy, and larger number of senior citizens. One of the most significant challenges of population aging is the increase in health costs for providing healthcare services. Considering the general policies of population in Iran to increase the dynamic atmosphere of fertility, this study aims to investigate the effect of population aging on the proportion of health costs in gross domestic production, using data from the national statistics of Iran and the world bank from 1981 to 2019. First, a model for analyzing the health costs in the GDP was provided. Then, its ratio was analyzed using auto-regression. Also, to investigate the balance speed of short term to the long term model, the error correction model was employed. The findings indicated that the increased population aging led to increases healthcare costs in the long term in that, 1% increase in the aging index resulted in 0.37% increase in the healthcare costs. Moreover, in the long term, the increase of annual GDP variables, price index in the healthcare, and urbanization had a significantly positive impact on the healthcare costs with respect to the GDP. The error correction rate was 46%.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Aging
  • healthcare costs
  • Iran

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