بررسی تجربی اثرات سیاست‌های توسعه‌ای ارتباطات و فناوری اطلاعات بر رشد اقتصادی ایران

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد یار گروه اقتصاد،دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران

3 کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران

چکیده

فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات یکی از ابزارهای ضروری برای گسترش فعالیت‌های اقتصادی و تسریع رشد اقتصادی است. در این تحقیق، با استفاده از یک مدل FAVAR با پارامترهای متغیر در طول زمان (TVP-FAVAR) نحوۀ اثرگذاری عوامل مؤثر بر تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه با تأکید بر شاخص فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات محاسباتی بررسی شده است. بر این اساس، با استفاده از داده‌های سا لهای 1365 تا 1395 به تحلیل اثرات شوک‌های وارده بر متغیرهای فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات، شاخص درجۀ باز بودن اقتصاد، نسبت مخارج مصرفی دولت به تولید ناخالص داخلی، تشکیل سرمایۀ ثابت ناخالص و نیروی کار فعال بر تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانۀ ایران پرداخته شده است. براساس نتایج، اثرات فناوری اطلاعات و تشکیل سرمایۀ ثابت ناخالص بر تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه در تمام دورۀ مورد بررسی مثبت است. همچنین نیروی کار فعال و شاخص درجۀ باز بودن اقتصاد اثرات مثبت بر تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه داشته‌اند. نتایج بیانگر یک هم‌زمانی در اثرگذاری غیرخطی متغیرهای مدل بر تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه است؛ به طوری که در برخی از دوره‌ها مانند سال‌های 1369 تا 1373 که اثرات مثبت شوک به تشکیل سرمایۀ ثابت ناخالص به تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه کاهش یافته، شاهد کاهش اثرگذاری اثرات مثبت آزادسازی تجاری و افزایش اثرگذاری مخارج مصرفی دولتی بر تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه نیز هستیم. بر این اساس، نتایج تحقیق لزوم استفاده از مدل‌های غیرخطی در بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه را نشان می‌دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Experimental Study of the effects of ICT Developmental Policies on Iran's Economic Growth

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohsen Khezri 1
  • Mohammad Kazem Naziri 2
  • Sahar Gharloghi 3
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran.
3 MA in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

ICT is one of the essential tools for expanding economic activity and accelerating economic growth. In this study, using a FAVAR model with time-varying parameters (TVP-FAVAR), the effects and determinants of GDP per capita, with emphasis on the variables of ICT is investigated.. Accordingly, using data from 1986 to 2016 the effects of shocks on ICT index, trade openness, the ratio of Government expenditures to GDP, the formation of gross fixed capital, and active labor force, on Iran's per capita GDP is investigated. Based on the results, the effects of information and communication technology on per capita GDP is significantly positive, the results also indicate that investment has positive effects; Active labor force and trade openness also have positive effects on GDP per capita. The results represent a coincidence in the non-linear effects of model variables on GDP per capita, so that in some periods such as 1990 to 1994, when the positive effects of shock on the formation of gross fixed capital expenditure is decreasing, there are a reduction in the positive effects of trade openness; accordingly, the results point to the necessity of using nonlinear models to study the effects and determinants of GDP per capita.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Information technology
  • active labor force
  • Trade openness
  • Economic Growth
  • TVP-FAVAR Model
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