اثر تجارت و توسعه منابع انسانی بر رشد اقتصادی ایران با هدف رونق تولید

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناسی ارشد علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران

چکیده

در این تحقیق، به بررسی تأثیر آزادسازی تجاری و سرمایۀ انسانی بر رشد اقتصادی در ایران پرداخته شده است. تحقیق حاضر بر دو جنبۀ رشد اقتصاد تکیه دارد و دورۀ بررسی آن از سال 1338 تا 1394 است. بررسی‌ها با کمک آزمونهای علیت انگل ـ  گرنجر و هم‌انباشتگی در طول دوره‌های کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت با الگوی تصحیح خطا (ECM) و الگوی خودرگرسیونی با وقفۀ توزیعی (ARDL) صورت گرفته است. نتایج به دست آمده از تخمین مدل حاکی از آن است که شاخص آزادسازی تجاری در دورۀ کوتاه‌مدت بر رشد اقتصادی (کل و بدون بخش نفتی) اثر مثبت و معناداری دارد؛ ولی در بلندمدت فقط بر رشد اقتصادی کل معنادار است. همچنین شاخص سرمایۀ انسانی فقط در دورۀ بلندمدت بر رشد اقتصادی (کل و بدون بخش نفتی) اثر مثبت و معناداری دارد و در دورۀ کوتاه‌مدت آثار مثبت، ولی بی‌معناست.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The effect of trade on economic growth and human resource development in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Moohamadrasoul Jahani 1
  • Saeed Farahani Fard 2
1 MA in Economics, Faculty of Economics, Qom University, Qom, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Qom University, Qom, Iran
چکیده [English]

trade liberalization and economic growth is human capital. Payh Y theoretical study, based on Tsn (2006). This study focuses on two Jnbh Y economy: the growth of the economy during the period of economic growth without the oil sector during Dvrh Y1353-1394 Zmany1338-1394V, Engel-Granger causality tests and surveys with the help of Mdt short periods during the long-term integration and error correction model (ECM) and Auto Regressive model distributed lag (ARDL) has been obtained. the results of the model indicate that the index of trade liberalization in Dvrh Y short-term economic growth (total and non-oil sector), is a positive and significant effect, but only in the long period of economic growth is significant. The human capital index only during the long-term economic growth (total and non-oil sector) is positive and significant effect of the period of short-term positive effects, however, are meaningless. The human capital index only during the long-term economic growth (total and non-oil sector) is positive and significant effect of the period of short-term positive effects, however, are meaningless.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Trade
  • human resources
  • Economic Growth
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