عنوان مقاله [English]
Considering the importance of unemployment, the present study has tried to predict the future of this influential variable for Golestan province using Future studies and scenario planning approach. For this purpose, the present study was designed to simulate 11 scenarios for demand and 3 scenarios for the supply of labor force, and a total of 33 different scenarios for unemployment and employment rates for women and men in the province. Finally, according to experts’ viwe, the probability of the scenarios was assessed and identified the most probable scenario for the unemployment rate in Golestan province. According to the results of the study, in 1405 the unemployment rate of men would be 19.4%, women, 25.9% and unemployment rate of the province would be 20.5%. On the other hand, in order to Golestan remain its current unemployment rate (1394 unemployment rate), should created 7965 net jobs annually in the period from 1406 to 1396. Therefore, in order to get out of this challenge and turn it into an opportunity for growth, it is necessary to design targeted provincial planners to manage the labor market of the Golestan province.