آینده‌نگاری شاخص‌های ترکیبی اقتصاد دانش‌بنیان در ایران (افق 1404)

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد، گروه مدیریت، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران

2 استادیار، گروه مدیریت، دانشکده مدیریت و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه ولایت، ایرانشهر، ایران

3 کارشناسی ارشد، ، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه سیستان وبلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران

چکیده

هدف پژوهش حاضر، آینده‌پژوهی و سناریو پردازی شاخص‌های ترکیبی اقتصاد دانش‌بنیان بر پایه روش تحلیل اثرات متقاطع و سناریو پردازی است. ابتدا به شناسایی و تحلیل عوامل پیشران کلیدی پرداخته و سپس سناریوهای عمده پیش روی اقتصاد دانش‌بنیان در ایران تدوین شد. چارچوب نظری این تحقیق، پارادایم هنجاری و برنامه‌ریزی با رویکرد وفادارانه به اسناد بالادستی است. افق زمانی تحقیق حاضر سال 1404 هجری شمسی است. داده‌های اولیه تحقیق با استفاده از پیشینه‌های تحقیق و پرسش‌نامه از محققان ملی و بین‌المللی جمع‌آوری و با استفاده از تحلیل سلسله مراتبی و نمودار MIC MAC تجزیه‌وتحلیل شده‌اند. درنهایت نتایج حاصل از به‌کارگیری روش تحلیل تأثیرات متقاطع حاکی از آن بود که 14 عامل کلیدی از میان عوامل 32 گانه شناسایی شده بیشترین تأثیر را بر آینده اقتصاد دانش‌بنیان خواهد داشت. این عوامل به‌عنوان عوامل پایه‌ی اصلی در سناریونویسی مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. شاخص‌های صنایع دانش بنیان شامل: 1-سهم صادرات فناوری پیشرفته از تولیدات صنعتی، 2-تعداد مارک‌ها و برندهای تجاری ثبت‌شده، 3-سهم صادرات محصولات فناوری اطلاعات از کل صادرات کالا و خدمات و 4-هزینه‌های لیسانسی و رویالتی) مهم ترین عوامل کلیدی شناسایی شده بودند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Futuristic Combined Indicators of Knowledge Based Economy in Iran (2025 AD).

نویسندگان [English]

  • Nour Mohammad Yaghoubi 1
  • Masoud Dehghani 2
  • Malihe Omidvar 3
1 Prof., Department of Management, Faculty of Management, University of Sistan & Blouchestan, Zahedan, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Management, Faculty of Management and Humanities, Velayat University, Iranshahr, Iran
3 MSc, Faculty of Management and Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran
چکیده [English]

The purpose of the present research is to investigate the future and study the scenarios of the combined indicators of knowledge based economy based on cross-impact analysis and scenario analysis. First, we identify and analyze the key drivers and then develop the major scenarios for the knowledge economy in Iran. The theoretical framework of this research is a normative paradigm and planning with a loyal approach to top-notch documents. The horizons of the present research are 2025. The preliminary research data were collected using research backgrounds and questionnaires from national and international researchers and analyzed using hierarchical analysis and MIC MAC charts. Finally, the results of applying the cross-impact analysis method indicated that 14 key factors among the identified 32 factors would have the greatest impact on the future of knowledge economy. These factors were used as the main underlying factors in scenario. Indicators of knowledge based industries; 1-Share of advanced technology exports from industrial production, 2-Number of registered trademarks and trademarks. 3-Share of IT products Exports from the total export of goods and services. 4-Licensing and Royalties, were the most important key factors identified.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Futures Study
  • Foresight
  • Knowledge-based Economy
  • Scenario
  • Cross-impact Analysis

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