بررسی اولویتهای راهبردی سیاستهای پولی و مالی در ایران

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد دانشکده حقوق دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

2 دانشجوی دکتری حقوق کیفری و جرم شناسی دانشگاه عدالت، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

هدف این مقاله شناسایی چارچوب سیاست‌گذاری مناسب در برای تحقق اهداف سیاست‌های پولی و مالی در جهت ایجاد ثبات در اقتصاد ایران است. رفتار سیاست‌گذاران پولی و مالی با استفاده از روش بهینه‌سازی پویا و الگوی رهبر پیرو نظریه بازی‌ها و تعریف توابع هدف و قیود پیش روی سیاست‌گذاران تحت دو رویکرد اساسی سیاست‌گذاری مصلحتی و تعهد دو سیاست‌گذار، استخراج شد. برآورد پارامترهای مدل نیز در قالب 4 سناریو با استفاده از روش تخمین بیزی انجام گرفت.
بر مبنای یافته‌های تحقیق، سیاست‌گذاری مبتنی بر قاعده و رهبری سیاست‌گذار پولی منجر به افزایش ثبات اقتصادی می‌شود. اهمیت تثبیت تولید و تورم برای سیاست‌گذاران متعهد در مقایسه با سیاست‌گذاران مصلحت‌اندیش بیشتر است. در حالیکه برای یک سیاست‌گذار متعهد تثبیت تورم از تثبیت تولید مهمتر است، برای یک سیاست‌گذار مصلحت اندیش، تثبیت تولید بر تبیت تورم مقدم است. یافته‌های تحقیق نشان می‌دهد تثبیت بدهی عمومی برای بانک مرکزی متعهد نسبت به بانک مرکزی مصلحت‌اندیش اهمیت بسیار بیشتری دارد. سیاست مالی در رویکرد سیاست‌گذاری صلاحدیدی رفتار موافق با ادوار تجاری دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

A Study of Strategic Scenarios of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • pari jaafarielilab 1
  • Jaafar Haghighat 2
1 Professor, Faculty of Law, Tabiyat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
2 PhD Student in Criminal Law and Criminology, Adalat University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The purpose of this paper is to identify an appropriate policy making framework in order to achieve the objectives of monetary and fiscal policies to stabilize the Iran economy. The behavior of monetary and fiscal policy makers was extracted by using the dynamic optimization method and game theory and objective functions definition and constrains facing policy makers under two policymaking approaches: discretion and commitment. Estimation of model parameters was done in 4 scenarios using Bayesian estimation method.
Findings show that, committed monetary leadership led to an increase in economic stability. Output and inflation stabilization is more importance for committed policy makers than discretionary policy makers. While for a committed policy maker the inflation stabilization is more importance than output stabilization. For a discretionary policy maker, the output stabilization is more important than inflation stabilization. The results of research show that for committed central bank, the stabilization of public debt is more importance than for discretionary central bank. The fiscal policy in discretionary policy making approach have pro- cyclical behavior.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium
  • discretionary policy making
  • commitment policy making
  • game theory
  • Bayesian estimation method
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